|Cashew kernels||US$/lb||Raw Cashews||US$ FOB|
|WW320 FOB Origin||US$4.65-4.90||Ivorian 44-46lbs||1500|
|Large Pieces||US$3.75||Guinea Bissau 52-54 lbs||2200|
The past month has been a period of relative price stability. At this time of year active markets tend to be in India for the Diwali festival, in the USA and to a lesser extent in Europe for the peak demand Christmas season. Most Western buyers would have their needs covered long ago and enter the market only for “top up” orders or new promotions. Both have been lacking due to high prices for cashew kernels. Indian demand is by its nature busier as the Diwali festival approaches but demand has been restrained by the introduction of the sales tax and by the high prices. India sees the impact of high prices quickly as it is effectively a spot market. Western countries, on the other hand has a period when higher prices may not impact the market depending on the level of forward buying which is in place. Indications now are that buyers are relatively happy with their level of cover for 2017. They will be careful in their forward buying as prices remain high despite the fall from the season (and all time) highs. Full document is attached here ANSAF Monthly September 2017
Monthly cashew market update for August 2017
Market News& Trend
|Cashew kernels||US$/lb||Raw Cashews||US$ FOB|
|WW320 FOB Origin||US$4.80||Ivorian 44-46lbs||1800|
|Large Pieces||US$3.75||Guinea Bissau 52-54 lbs||2350|
The first six months of 2017 were a period of high volatility in the cashew market. Following the high-priced trading of the last quarter of 2016 when Tanzanian raw cashews traded at high levels it was expected that large northern hemisphere crops would calm the market and that prices would return to levels of early 2016 i.e. raw cashew circa US$1500-1600 per tonne for 48lbs quality and cashew kernels WW320 toward US$4.00 per lb FOB.
25th January 2016
There cashew kernels market is very quiet and likely to remain so for the immediate future. Vietnamese processors will go on the long Tet holiday as will Chinese buyers. Meantime in Europe and the USA February is usually the quietest month of the year for new contracting.
Price Us$ per lb FOB
Cashew pieces and broken grades seem under some selling pressure in Vietnam. The RCN market is full of rumour and discussion. Many report that crops are delayed but as often happens localized reports seem to
contradict this news. It does seem to us that there is a significant problem with the crop in Kerala, India but today this state only accounts for about 10% of the Indian crop. Elsewhere crops forecasts remain good. The inventory position will remain tight but trade is thin as processors will only buy high priced old crop as needed. Prices now quoted are in the region $1520 Benin 50 lbs , $1430 Ivory Coast 48lbs. These look like opening offers from traders looking to speculate and we should see better indications and (all going well) lower prices by the end of February.
Tanzanian RCn is trading in a wide range of prices from resellers between $1600 and $1700 / mt Cfr India/Vietnam. The price range reflects quality differences between lots. The CBT reports some difficulty with traders not taking up RCN bought at auction. This is probably due to difficulties reselling in a quiet market.
There were many new traders licensed this year particularly with a view to trading to Vietnam. It could well be that with nothing to lose and the cash position tight that these traders will default. The Board is attempting to enforce the contracts. I understand that the volume is not large on these contracts but if they were to be resold prices probably would be lower. Meantime the crop is coming to an end with declining quality due to rains. It looks as if the crop was not a good one but not as poor as some processors and traders feared at the outset. A full analysis will follow in the Jnauary monthly report.
Crop news is mixed this week:
India: Reports from Kerala of poor crop prospects
Vietnam: Reports remain average to good.
Cote D’Ivoire: Good growing conditions.
JF for ANSAF January 25th 2016
18th December 2015
It was a relatively quiet week this week in keeping with expectations for the time of year.
Price Us$ per lb FOB
Prices for cashew kernels have remained stable perhaps with a little more selling interest showing from the main origins especially Vietnam. The chances of a major move in prices during the coming 3-4 weeks seem low with buyers likely to be inactive in the West but possibly some buying from the Chinese market for the New Year festival.
The imports figures for the USA for October were released this week. Tanzanian exports to the US for 10 months Jan-Oct 2015 were at 444 tonnes down 6.6% on the same period in 2014. Other African countries had mixed fortunes in the US market. Mozambique is up 17.5% at 1856 tonnes, Benin is up 7% and Cote D’Ivoire is up 5% at 2923 tonnes whilst Ghana exports to the US have collapsed at 51% down. Vietnam is the USA’s largest supplier with morw than 70% share in October 2015.
The Raw cashew market at destination was relatively unchanged this week with Tanzanian top quality offered for sale at US$1750 per tonne Cfr India or Vietnam. Prices at the auction dropped back by $50-70 per tonne at TZS 2,305-2736 per kg in warehouse according to The Cashew Board of Tanzania with an increased volume traded at 10,500 tonnes. Buyers may well have covered their current needs and will reduce bidding prices over the next few weeks. However quality may also be falling back according to some reports explaining the reduced prices. Prospects for the RCN market seem suggest relatively stable prices for the coming weeks and then a fall away as the northern hemisphere harvests come onto the horizon.
Crop reports remain positive in Mozambique and good flowering in West Africa. There are some questions about the Indian growing conditions with some unusual weather patterns which should be carefully followed.
30th, November 2015
The cashew kernels market around the World this week remained steady. It is trending toward the top of the two-year range of prices for the benchmark WW320 grade. WW320 are offered for sale between $3.45 and $3.60 per lb FOB the main exporting countries (India and Vietnam). This is 4% below the top of the price range for two years in a market that has been relatively stable over the period. The other main grades show similar patterns with WW240 $3.70 – $3.75 per lb FOB and Large pieces $2.97-$3.05 per lb. Demand is subdued at this time of year with most buyers covered for their requirements until the main new crops start to arrive in February and March starting with Vietnam and moving west to finish in Guinea Bissau in July.
The main talking point this week is the supply of raw cashew nuts. This market is full of speculation and rumour of higher prices based on poorer than expected crops in Indonesia and Tanzania. Prices for Indonesian raw nuts have firmed to US$1675 per tonne for 51 lbs Cfr India /Vietnam. The quality of Indonesian nuts has fallen as the season advanced with the expected quality of 53/54 lbs yield not now available.
Tanzanian raw nuts have been trading internationally at prices in the range US$1725-$1745 per tonne Cfr India/Vietnam. Prices have risen throughout the season so far as arrivals have been disappointing and processors like Tanzanian raw cashew for its yield and ease of processing. There is talk from speculators that prices would rise further. The auction was better supported pushing prices a little higher in the range Tshs.2650-2950 per kg in warehouse. These are good prices for in shell cashews but still represent a high margin possibility for the traders. Arrival improved this week with 15,000 tonnes reported by the Cashew Board of Tanzania. There are still some weeks to go and whilst the bumper cropped forecast by some, and hoped for by all seems very unlikely now there is still a chance that the crop will be better than the 40-50% down predicted by some of the actors in the market. It seems as if the strong prices will continue as buyers, especially in India will need to keep their factories operating. However, there is not much sign of a major rise in prices as the big processors are covered for their processing needs.
Tanzania processors dealing with RCN Tshs 2600-2950 and cashew kernels represented by WW320 at $3.45 per lb FOB for export should be able to process if they are well managed and have outlets for all the grades they produce. The key factor is in the management of the plants and the sourcing of quality raw material.